Economic growth

Something happened. Or not?

01. May, 2012 in Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Economy, Publications, Free publications

The forint strengthened considerably after the news that the obstacles to the IMF negotiations might be eliminated soon. GKI forecasts that the implementation of the Szell Kalman Plan 2.0 may be sufficient to terminate the excessive deficit procedure next year.

The forecast of GKI Economic Research Co. for 2012

28. Mar, 2012 in Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

The Hungarian economy has been the weakest for years in the region, and it fell short of its own capabilities. Now this is accompanied by a credibility crisis (perceived in the political, economic and business spheres as well). Although the growth was slightly faster than the EU average in 2011, it was lower than the regional one.

Another wave of layoffs is on the agenda?

13. Feb, 2012 in Analysis, Business expectations, Economic growth, Employment, Investment , Firms, Free publications

According to the survey of GKI made in January, the number of undertakings reckoning with increasing sales revenues exceeds those expecting decreasing ones. In terms of the number of employees and investments, those anticipating contraction are in majority.

 

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The change started

27. Jan, 2012 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

According to the forecast of GKI the successful accomplishment of negotiations with the IMF and the EU will be enough only for mitigating the contraction of GDP. The recovery of confidence of portfolio and particularly foreign direct investors may bring results only in 2013 the earliest.

Way out of the dead end

18. Jan, 2012 in Economic growth, Economic policy, Economy, Free publications

Hungary is facing a financial and solvency crisis for the third time in the past six years. The exchange rate of the forint is weakening, interest rates are rising, and government securities can hardly be sold or can be done so at horribly high yields. The causes of the three cases are different.

 

Genuine change is needed in economic policy

29. Dec, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

In its forecast released in September GKI has already indicated that external demand would slow down and domestic economic policy exerted a strongly adverse effect on domestic demand and financial trends. The Hungarian economy reached a dead end. Genuine turn is needed in economic policy.

 

There is a need for genuine change

07. Nov, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

GKI forecasts that even to start the negotiations with the IMF successfully, genuine economic policy change and the return to market economy principles are required. Next year, however, this would only be enough to mitigate the decline. Regaining the confidence of financial capital and FDI markets can be expected only by 2013, at best.

Signs of recession

01. Nov, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

According to the forecast of GKI prospects for the next year are gloomy, and recession is looming, though less deep than two years ago. Inflation is accelerating, the general government deficit is larger than planned, however, it probably will be less than 3 per cent.

Consumption drops by 3 per cent next year

09. Oct, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

Prospects for the next year are gloomy, and recession is looming, though less deep than two years ago. This is only in part a consequence of the worsening global economic environment.

The forecast of GKI Economic Research Co. for 2011-2012

28. Sep, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Szell Kalman Plan, Publications, Free publications

The deteriorating growth prospects of the Hungarian economy are in part a consequence of the worsening global economic environment and the uncertainties concerning the solvency of some countries. However, domestic economic policy played a decisive role.

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