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Slight improvement on residential market

10. May, 2012 in Construction, Housing, Publications, Real estate, Free publications

In April of 2012 the GKI Budapest Real Estate Market Index (92.8) shows insignificant decrease compared to the previous quarter (-0.8 points). Expectations on residential and warehouse market improved slightly, on office and retail space market deteriorated.

Something happened. Or not?

01. May, 2012 in Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Economy, Publications, Free publications

The forint strengthened considerably after the news that the obstacles to the IMF negotiations might be eliminated soon. GKI forecasts that the implementation of the Szell Kalman Plan 2.0 may be sufficient to terminate the excessive deficit procedure next year.

GKI-Erste economic sentiment index remained unchanged in April

22. Apr, 2012 in Business cycle, Business expectations, Consumer expectations, Prosperity, Publications, Free publications

In April, the GKI-Erste economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects remained at its March level following a modest increase of two months and a previous significant decline of almost one year. This corresponds to the level at the end of summer 2011.

The forecast of GKI Economic Research Co. for 2012

28. Mar, 2012 in Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

The Hungarian economy has been the weakest for years in the region, and it fell short of its own capabilities. Now this is accompanied by a credibility crisis (perceived in the political, economic and business spheres as well). Although the growth was slightly faster than the EU average in 2011, it was lower than the regional one.

Increasing risk of bankruptcy

28. Feb, 2012 in Analysis, Bankruptcy, Firms, Free publications

According to Hungarian companies, the number of bankrupt businesses will slightly rise this year as well, following an all-time high of last year. They expect a particularly strong wave of bankruptcies in trade and in vehicle trade, as well as in agriculture and in collective services. 

 

The situation after the final payback of FX loans

16. Feb, 2012 in Analysis, Banking sector, Real estate, Firms, Free publications

According to the figures of the Hungarian Financial Supervisory Authority, with the final payback of FX loans in one instalment at a fixed exchange rate, 160 thousand contracts with a total amount of more than HUF1200 billion at market rate were closed down.

Another wave of layoffs is on the agenda?

13. Feb, 2012 in Analysis, Business expectations, Economic growth, Employment, Investment , Firms, Free publications

According to the survey of GKI made in January, the number of undertakings reckoning with increasing sales revenues exceeds those expecting decreasing ones. In terms of the number of employees and investments, those anticipating contraction are in majority.

 

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The change started

27. Jan, 2012 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

According to the forecast of GKI the successful accomplishment of negotiations with the IMF and the EU will be enough only for mitigating the contraction of GDP. The recovery of confidence of portfolio and particularly foreign direct investors may bring results only in 2013 the earliest.

Way out of the dead end

18. Jan, 2012 in Economic growth, Economic policy, Economy, Free publications

Hungary is facing a financial and solvency crisis for the third time in the past six years. The exchange rate of the forint is weakening, interest rates are rising, and government securities can hardly be sold or can be done so at horribly high yields. The causes of the three cases are different.

 

Genuine change is needed in economic policy

29. Dec, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

In its forecast released in September GKI has already indicated that external demand would slow down and domestic economic policy exerted a strongly adverse effect on domestic demand and financial trends. The Hungarian economy reached a dead end. Genuine turn is needed in economic policy.

 

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