|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
  
|
The consumer and business surveys of GKI Economic Research CO.
Economic analysts and forecasters make intensive use of information based on consumer and business expectations all over the world in general and in the European Union in particular. GKI Co. has been organising consumer surveys since February 1993 and business ones since January 1996.
After World War II, conjuncture research based on business surveys became a more and more accepted and wide-spread analytical tool in the developed regions of the world economy, first of all in Western Europe and North America. The essence of this method is that company managers are approached with short questionnaires that can be filled out easily. The questions usually do not pertain to quantified information, but the evaluation of the situation. The expectations are measured on a scale with three grades (e.g., managers may evaluate the level of inventories as high, average or low). The non-quantified answers given to the questions can be transformed into quantified results. The responses received can be summarised easily and quickly, the wrong answers of individual companies do not cause much harm, in contrast to the official collection of statistical figures. Following the arrival of responses, survey results can be published within a short period of time. The business confidence indexes are produced from the averages of the responses given to the questions.
In the field of business surveys, two distinct schools have emerged. The first school regards the purchasing practice and its changes of industrial companies as the factor characterising the business cycle most adequately. Consequently, the representatives of this approach visit the purchasing managers of companies with their questionnaires. The purchasing manager indices are compiled from their responses. This method is popular mainly in the US. The second school focuses on the responses of No. 1 managers of companies. The surveys contain questions on the evaluation of the general state of the business, the perspectives of production, sales, inventories and the stock of orders. This research method is general in Western Europe, and it is most wide-spread in the transition countries of Central and Eastern Europe. In the EU member states, industrial surveys have the most significant traditions, although surveys have been conducted in construction, trade and services as well since several decades. The history of consumer surveys, too, dates back to decades. Their objective is to identify the economic sentiment and expected purchasing behaviour of consumers. Surveys organised in the European Economic Space are co-ordinated by the Directorate General "Economic and Monetary Affairs" of the European Commission. GKI Co. is the Hungarian participant of this project.
GKI Economic Research Co. has organised monthly surveys in industry and trade and quarterly ones in construction. Quarterly research in services started in 1998 and since January 2002, monthly surveys have been made in construction and services. The sequencing of the surveys, the questions asked the evaluation and publication procedures are in line with the practice of the EU and they are monitored and controlled frequently by the experts of the EU.
GKI Co. approaches 5-6 thousand companies with legal status employing more than 20 persons each month. Out of them, some 1000-1200 undertakings respond to its questionnaire. The return rate is lower than the EU average, but it is similar to that of the former socialist countries. The responses received are sufficiently representative in sectoral and regional terms, i.e., the sectoral and the regional structure of the Hungarian economy does not differ significantly from the proportions of the sample. Nevertheless, this does not hold true for the size structure. Small companies are less willing to provide information about themselves than medium-sized and larger ones. This is not necessarily negative from the validity of the research results, since in most segments, the weight of medium-sized and large companies is outstanding in the Hungarian economy. The homogeneity of response samples is satisfactory in terms of both company size and sectoral structure. This means that in the subsequent surveys, the internal structure of the samples show a rather high degree of stability. This is positive since in the interpretation of the results it is not necessary to pay attention to effects related to changes in the structure of the samples. The representativeness (in terms of age, sex and education) that is necessary and required in household surveys is not so unanimous in business ones. The units of the corporate sector are namely less similar to each other. In this field the requirements of the European Union are not too stringent, more emphasis is laid on stability than on representativeness. This approach is justified by the diversity of the member states and the candidate countries in terms of economic structure, economic development level and size.
| Industrial confidence index in the EU and in Hungary, 1996-2007 |
| Industrial confidence index | Volume index |
 |
| Sources: European Economy, Central Statistical Office, GKI Co. |
According to the experts of the National Bank of Hungary, the industrial confidence index of GKI Co. is a coincident indicator varying directly with industrial production. To evaluate the predictive power of the index it is important to note that GKI Co. publishes its index two months before the official figures of the Hungarian Central Statistical Office are released. Changes in the Hungarian industrial confidence index as measured by GKI Co. and those of the European Union are almost the same indicating that Hungary's industry has been embedded in the European one and its cyclical changes depend mainly on demand impulses of the Western European space.
Retail sales and the GKI consumer confidence index, 1994-2007
(six-month moving averages) |
| Percent* | |
 |
| Sources: Central Statistical Office; GKI Co. |
In Hungary, consumer surveys have been organized by GKI Co. since February 1993. Interviewers approach 1000, from 2001 on 1500 persons. The rate of responses is well above 90 per cent. The sample selected is representative according to sex, age, educational level and the type of the settlement. In evaluating the size of the sample, it is necessary to consider the fact that in Germany 3000 persons are interviewed. According to the researchers of the National bank of Hungary, the consumer confidence index of GKI Co. forecasts the consumption of households one quarter ahead at a fairly high level of reliability.
GKI consumer confidence index, 1993-2007
Seasonally adjusted data
Sources: Eurostat, Szonda-Ipsos, GKI Co.
|
The research experience of the past fifty years indicate that the business confidence index based on the averages of responses given to the individual questions is not really suitable for the projection of economic development trends and shocks that arise from the non-economic sphere, but it predicts changes in the business cycle at a rather high level of efficiency. The consumer sentiment index does not reflect unambiguously the state of the conjuncture. It is often influenced by factors that have nothing to do with the economy (like parliamentary elections). In Western Europe, the "consumers" of sentiment indices include mainly institutions of the administration, researchers specialized on macroeconomic issues and forecasts and the media. In the corporate sector, confidence indices are used in the elaboration of background analyses and business plans.
Surveys
The description of survey questionnaires and confidence indices:
The data bases of survey results:
|
|
|
>