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September 12. 2005. GKI composite index
Industrial expectations have improved further
The seasonally adjusted GKI-Wallis confidence index remained practically unchanged in August. According to the survey of GKI Economic Research Co. (www.gki.hu) - supported by the European Union - business expectations somewhat deteriorated but consumer confidence improved a bit.
Within the business sector the confidence index improved in the industry, declined in the trade sector and remained unchanged in the construction. In the industry, after a year-long decrease the expectations have been improving for four consecutive months. The firms opinion on their production, stock of domestic and export orders and stock of own products was better in August than in July. They did not plan price increase for the next three months and they expected increasing employment.
Enterprises of the trade sector reported weaker turnover and less active purchasing policy than in July. Inflationary expectations have increased a bit, nevertheless, they are much lower than a year ago. In the construction industry the opinion on the level of production and on the stock of orders was better in August than in July, but employment plans worsened. More firms planned price reduction than price increase. The opinion on the state of the Hungarian economy has improved in every sector.
The consumer confidence index - after an improvement in 2004 - continuously decreased in the first half of this year. This trend, however, changed in July. As a result, the value of this indicator is the same now as it was a year ago.
In August households considered their own financial situation to be basically similar to that in July and they expected some improvement in the next 12 months. They considered the economic situation of the country better than in the previous month and expected further significant improvement during the coming one-year period. Their inflationary expectations moderated compared to that in July and they expected fast decline in the pace of price increases in the coming twelve-month period.
Their expectations concerning unemployment somewhat improved. At the same time consumers' propensity to purchase is palpably worse than in the previous month but the expectations for the next twelve months project moderate improvement. On the other hand, the share of those deeming it was a proper time to save has decreased again.
Explanation to the methodology:
The GKI Economic Research Co. - according to the methodology of the EU - takes into account the expectations of the industry, trade sector and the construction sector when calculating the economic sentiment index. GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data: by using appropriate mathematical methods to filter out the discrepancies caused by seasonal impacts (e.g. weather differences between winter and summer, increased demand before Christmas, lower output because of summer vacations).
The consumer confidence index is calculated from the responses to questions concerning the actual and the expected financial position of households, the actual and the expected economic situation of the country, and the purchase of consumer durables of higher value.
The business confidence index is calculated from the responses of enterprises in the industry, trade and construction sectors given to questions concerning the course of business and expectations.
The GKI-Wallis composite index is the weighted average of the consumer and business confidence index.
GKI-Wallis Composite Index and its components, 1996-2005
Source: surveys of GKI Co.
|
| | 1996. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -45.1 | -48.8 | -45.9 | -44.8 | -50.5 | -51.5 | -46.8 | -41.9 | -42.8 | -40.0 | -34.9 | -39.6 |
| Business confidence | -7.8 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -7.0 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -3.8 | -5.0 |
| GKI-composite index | -17.5 | -15.6 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 | -19.4 | -16.1 | -15.2 | -12.7 | -11.9 | -14.0 |
| |
| | 1997. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -40.0 | -41.1 | -39.1 | -41.6 | -39.4 | -34.7 | -33.8 | -30.3 | -25.6 | -27.2 | -23.0 | -26.1 |
| Business confidence | -5.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -14.5 | -14.2 | -11.4 | -12.4 | -10.5 | -8.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| |
| | 1998. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.0 | -15.6 | -18.6 | -19.9 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -9.8 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -16.3 | -22.7 |
| Business confidence | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -8.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -10.2 | -11.3 | -12.5 |
| |
| | 1999. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.7 | -22.8 | -28.5 | -29.6 | -28.9 | -35.5 | -32.9 | -30.4 | -27.1 | -25.5 | -29.9 |
| Business confidence | -8.3 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -12.7 | -14.8 | -10.3 | -6.7 | -7.8 | -7.3 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -3.1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.8 | -14.4 | -14.7 | -16.8 | -18.6 | -15.1 | -14.2 | -14.4 | -13.3 | -11.2 | -10.1 | -10.1 |
| |
| | 2000. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.9 | -28.1 | -29.2 | -31.2 | -28.9 | -30.9 | -33.0 | -30.4 | -32.6 | -29.6 | -30.7 | -26.6 |
| Business confidence | -5.6 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| GKI-composite index | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -8.0 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 |
| |
| | 2001. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.2 | -23.2 | -23.4 | -20.9 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -19.9 | -20.9 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -16.6 | -15.1 |
| Business confidence | -1.4 | -1.7 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -7.1 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -7.6 | -7.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -10.5 | -9.3 | -10.9 | -11.7 | -12.4 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2002. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -15.6 | -13,9 | -5,4 | -0,6 | -2,1 | -1,8 | -1,3 | 0,5 | -3,5 | -3,5 | -8,7 | -7,8 |
| Business confidence | -10.1 | -6,9 | -4,3 | -9,3 | -4,7 | -6,2 | -6,2 | -4,4 | -6,9 | -4,9 | -6,4 | -7,1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.5 | -8,7 | -4,6 | -7,0 | -4,1 | -5,2 | -4,9 | -3,1 | -6,0 | -4,5 | -7,0 | -7,3 |
| |
| | 2003. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -12,2 | -21,9 | -22,5 | -19,2 | -21,4 | -23,5 | -25,1 | -32,7 | -32,4 | -32,3 | -31.0 | -31.1 |
| Business confidence | -12,0 | -11,0 | -13,1 | -11,4 | -8,4 | -13,4 | -10,2 | -9,3 | -11,0; | -9,8 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| GKI-composite index | -12,1 | -13,8 | -15,5 | -13,4 | -11,8 | -16,0 | -14,1 | -15,4 | -16,6 | -15,7 | -12.0 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2004. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -34.6 | -34.9 | -35.5 | -33.8 | -29.1 | -26.0 | -26.7 | -27.7 | -25.8 | -26,5 | -26,1 | -24,3 |
| Business confidence | -8.6 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -11,7 | -16,4 | -14,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.4 | -16.4 | -14.6 | -10.9 | -12.7 | -9.9 | -12.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | -15,5 | -18,9 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2005. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -21.7 | -22.5 | -26,0 | -30,9 | -32,7 | -35,2 | -28.9 | -27,8 | | | | |
| Business confidence | -12.7 | -16.1 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -14.2 | -15,2 | | | | |
| GKI-composite index | -15.0 | -17.8 | -19,6 | -20,6 | -21,4 | -21,7 | -18.0 | -18,5 | | | | |
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