|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| |
  
|
August 28. 2008. GKI sentiment index
There was no change in the value of the GKI economic sentiment index, adjusted for seasonal effects, during August. According to the survey conducted by GKI Gazdaságkutató Zrt. (www.gki.hu) with support from the European Union, the expectations of business remained the same while a very slight change occurred in terms of consumer expectations.
In the business sector, the confidence indices of industry and the construction industry slightly dropped, whereas those of trade and services increased, at a rather insignificant rate, however, in each sector. Despite its drop in August, the confidence index of industry still remained above its low point experienced in June this year. The weakening was due primarily to the more negative perception of production during the past period and the stocks of own production. There was no significant change in the perception of the value and composition of orders and the production outlook. Worse opinions were delivered concerning export orders, while there was an improvement in terms of the intentions to employ.
Following two months of increase, there was a drop in the construction industry confidence index. While expectations concerning production continued to improve, the assessment of the value and composition of orders turned more negative once again. The intentions to employ also changed for the worse.
In 2008, the value of the trade confidence index has increased almost without an interruption. In August, the rating of the sales position improved slightly while there was considerable improvement in terms of the expectations concerning orders. Worse opinion was, however, delivered as far as the level of stocks is concerned.
The expectations of service-industry businesses continued to improve for the second month in a row in August. While the expectation concerning future sales improved considerably, a slightly more pessimistic opinion was delivered on business during the past three months and the intentions to employ.
Efforts to increase prices declined in industry, the construction industry and particularly in services, whereas a contrary trend occurred among trading businesses. There was a marked decline in the inflationary expectations of households.
In August, following several months of improvement, the prospects of the Hungarian economy were considered slightly worse by respondents in each sector compared to July, as opposed to a minute improvement in the opinion of consumers.
Following a lowest level in April, the value of the GKI consumer confidence index continued to increase until July, which was followed a very slight decline, practically stagnation, during August. The July-August indicator represents the highest level for the past two years. In August, households’ expectations concerning their short-term savings capacity were markedly, while those concerning their financial position were slightly inferior to those of July. However, the fears of unemployment declined along with the improvement of expectations concerning costs of living.
Explanation to the methodology:
GKI Economic Research Co., in accordance with the methodology used by the EU, takes into account the expectations of industry, trade, construction and service sectors when calculates the economic confidence index. (In the service sector - like in the practice of the EU - for the time being the firms of the financial and public sectors do not appear among the surveyed companies.) GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data by using appropriate mathematical methods to filter out the discrepancies caused by seasonal impacts (e.g. weather differences between winter and summer, increased demand before Christmas, lower output because of summer vacations).
The consumer confidence index is calculated from the responses to questions concerning the actual and the expected financial position of households, the actual and the expected economic situation of the country, and the purchase of higher value consumer durables.
The business confidence index is calculated from the responses of enterprises in industry, trade, construction and service sectors to questions concerning the course of business and expectations. The history of the subindex that reflects the expectations of the service sector is shorter than that of other sectors: this kind of surveys started in 1998. Therefore the business confidence index for 1996-97 had to be recalculated. This was made using the mathematical correlation among the confidence indices of various sectors in the period after 1998.
The GKI economic sentiment index is the weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index.
GKI Sentiment Index and its components, 1996-2008
Source: surveys of GKI Co.
|
| | 1996. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -45.1 | -48.8 | -45.9 | -44.8 | -50.5 | -51.5 | -46.8 | -41.9 | -42.8 | -40.0 | -34.9 | -39.6 |
| Business confidence | -7.8 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -7.0 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -3.8 | -5.0 |
| GKI-composite index | -17.5 | -15.6 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 | -19.4 | -16.1 | -15.2 | -12.7 | -11.9 | -14.0 |
| |
| | 1997. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -40.0 | -41.1 | -39.1 | -41.6 | -39.4 | -34.7 | -33.8 | -30.3 | -25.6 | -27.2 | -23.0 | -26.1 |
| Business confidence | -5.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -14.5 | -14.2 | -11.4 | -12.4 | -10.5 | -8.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| |
| | 1998. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.0 | -15.6 | -18.6 | -19.9 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -9.8 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -16.3 | -22.7 |
| Business confidence | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -8.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -10.2 | -11.3 | -12.5 |
| |
| | 1999. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.7 | -22.8 | -28.5 | -29.6 | -28.9 | -35.5 | -32.9 | -30.4 | -27.1 | -25.5 | -29.9 |
| Business confidence | -8.3 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -12.7 | -14.8 | -10.3 | -6.7 | -7.8 | -7.3 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -3.1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.8 | -14.4 | -14.7 | -16.8 | -18.6 | -15.1 | -14.2 | -14.4 | -13.3 | -11.2 | -10.1 | -10.1 |
| |
| | 2000. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.9 | -28.1 | -29.2 | -31.2 | -28.9 | -30.9 | -33.0 | -30.4 | -32.6 | -29.6 | -30.7 | -26.6 |
| Business confidence | -5.6 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| GKI-composite index | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -8.0 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 |
| |
| | 2001. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.2 | -23.2 | -23.4 | -20.9 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -19.9 | -20.9 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -16.6 | -15.1 |
| Business confidence | -1.4 | -1.7 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -7.1 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -7.6 | -7.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -10.5 | -9.3 | -10.9 | -11.7 | -12.4 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2002. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -15.6 | -13,9 | -5,4 | -0,6 | -2,1 | -1,8 | -1,3 | 0,5 | -3,5 | -3,5 | -8,7 | -7,8 |
| Business confidence | -10.1 | -6,9 | -4,3 | -9,3 | -4,7 | -6,2 | -6,2 | -4,4 | -6,9 | -4,9 | -6,4 | -7,1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.5 | -8,7 | -4,6 | -7,0 | -4,1 | -5,2 | -4,9 | -3,1 | -6,0 | -4,5 | -7,0 | -7,3 |
| |
| | 2003. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -12,2 | -21,9 | -22,5 | -19,2 | -21,4 | -23,5 | -25,1 | -32,7 | -32,4 | -32,3 | -31.0 | -31.1 |
| Business confidence | -12,0 | -11,0 | -13,1 | -11,4 | -8,4 | -13,4 | -10,2 | -9,3 | -11,0; | -9,8 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| GKI-composite index | -12,1 | -13,8 | -15,5 | -13,4 | -11,8 | -16,0 | -14,1 | -15,4 | -16,6 | -15,7 | -12.0 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2004. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -34.6 | -34.9 | -35.5 | -33.8 | -29.1 | -26.0 | -26.7 | -27.7 | -25.8 | -26,5 | -26,1 | -24,3 |
| Business confidence | -8.6 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -11,7 | -16,4 | -14,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.4 | -16.4 | -14.6 | -10.9 | -12.7 | -9.9 | -12.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | -15,5 | -18,9 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2005. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -21.7 | -22.5 | -26,0 | -30,9 | -32,7 | -35,2 | -28.9 | -27,8 | -26,1 | -27,8 | -23,4 | -18,7 |
| Business confidence | -12.7 | -16.1 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -14.2 | -15,2 | -8,8 | -9,3 | -8,5 | -8,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.0 | -17.8 | -19,6 | -20,6 | -21,4 | -21,7 | -18.0 | -18,5 | -13,3 | -14,1 | -12,4 | -11,2 |
| |
| | 2006. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -16,3 | -10,3 | -11.8 | -10,5 | -24,4 | -43.3 | -48,2 | -46.9 | -51,1 | -49,0 | -51.8 | -52.9 |
| Business confidence | -8,6 | -9,4 | -5,4 | -3,7 | -2,2 | -4.4 | -5,8 | -8.8 | -4,2 | -7,3 | -6.7 | -9.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -10,6 | -9,6 | -7.1 | -5,5 | -8,0 | -14.5 | -16,8 | -18.7 | -16,4 | -18,1 | -18.4 | -21.0 |
| |
| | 2007. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -53,5 | -53.7 | -51,9 | -52,0 | -51,3 | -48,0 | -47,7 | -47,2 | -49,3 | -51,0 | -53,6 | -47,1 |
| Business confidence | -7,9 | -5.8 | -2,9 | -4,4 | -4,6 | -4,0 | -5,3 | -5,0 | -5,4 | -10,7 | -6,8 | -7,0 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,8 | -18.2 | -15,6 | -16,8 | -16,7 | -15,4 | -16,3 | -16,0 | -16,8 | -21,2 | -19,0 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2008. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -47,8 | -47.6 | -52.4 | -55.4 | -52.3 | -46,1 | -42,9 | -43.5 | | | | |
| Business confidence | -9,7 | -6.7 | -7.9 | -10.9 | -7.3 | -10,0 | -8,1 | -8.1 | | | | |
| GKI-composite index | -19,6 | -17.3 | -19.5 | -22.5 | -19.0 | -19,4 | -17,1 | -17.3 | | | | |
|
|
|
>