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April 21. 2010. GKI sentiment index
GKI's confidence index of consumers nearly reached its four-year high
In April, GKI's economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects continued its rise that started a year ago. According to the survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. (www.gki.hu) with the support of the European Union, the consumers' confidence index not only managed to surpass the level of the last ?calm' month before the crisis (September 2008), but it has reached its highest level since May 2006 as well. Business expectations were also close to the level before the crisis.
In March, expectations in the business sphere improved only because of the increase of the industrial confidence index, whereas in April it turned slightly downwards while expectations of all other sectors picked up. In industry the increase of the confidence index that started a year ago came to a halt for the second time. The evaluation of the production stagnated, the assessment of the stock of orders and own production deteriorated, whereas opinions on past production turned better. Export orders were considered worse, too. Expectations in industry decreased less in April than it had increased a month earlier. In construction the confidence index increased in April after the decrease in March, but it was still far below the level of September 2008. This time, the assessment of production and that of stock of orders concerning the next three months both improved. The confidence index of trade increased significantly in the first three months of 2010, then in April it jumped as high as the level before the crisis. The assessment of sales positions improved most, but that of expected orders also increased significantly, in the mean time the average level of stocks were higher than in March. In services, the confidence index adjusted for seasonal effects increased significantly in April after the fluctuating trend at the beginning of this year and it got close to the pre-crisis level. The opinions on the turnover for the next three months improved most, but the assessment of the state of the business got significantly better as well.
Intentions to employ dropped slightly in industry, decreased significantly in trade, whereas they improved in construction and rose even more in services. Fear from unemployment dropped significantly among consumers.
In industry, firms expected an increase of prices. In construction those expecting a price reduction were still in a big majority, but in the civil engineering industry firms planning a price rise were already in a majority. In trade and services more respondents expected an increase of prices, whereas households' inflationary expectations were down in April.
In April, firms that considered the prospects of the Hungarian economy to worsen were only in a small majority, and households' opinion on the state of the economy improved significantly as well.
GKI's confidence index of consumers increased markedly after its low in April 2009. This level was still very far from the peaks of former election years but it has not been so high for nearly four years. The assessment of consumers' own financial position improved notably whereas that of short-term saving capacity stagnated.
Explanation to the methodology:
In line with the methodology used by the EU, GKI surveys the expectations of industry, trade, construction and services in the calculation of its business confidence index. (As far as services are concerned, similarly to the practice of the EU, companies of the financial and public sectors have not been included in the surveys yet.) GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data by using appropriate mathematical methods to filter out the discrepancies caused by seasonal effects (e.g. differences in weather conditions between winter and summer, increased demand before Christmas, lower output because of summer vacations).
The consumer confidence index is calculated from responses given to questions concerning the actual and the expected financial position of households, the actual and the expected economic situation of the country, and the purchase of higher value consumer durables.
The business confidence index is calculated from the responses of enterprises in industry, trade, construction and services given to questions concerning the state of business and expectations. The history of the subindex that reflects the expectations of services is shorter than that of other sectors. This kind of surveys started in 1998. Therefore the business confidence index for 1996-1997 had to be recalculated. This was made by using the mathematical correlation among the confidence indices of various sectors in the period after 1998.
The GKI economic confidence index is the weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index.
GKI Sentiment Index and its components, 1996-2009
Source: surveys of GKI Co.
|
| | 1996. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -45.1 | -48.8 | -45.9 | -44.8 | -50.5 | -51.5 | -46.8 | -41.9 | -42.8 | -40.0 | -34.9 | -39.6 |
| Business confidence | -7.8 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -7.0 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -3.8 | -5.0 |
| GKI-composite index | -17.5 | -15.6 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 | -19.4 | -16.1 | -15.2 | -12.7 | -11.9 | -14.0 |
| |
| | 1997. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -40.0 | -41.1 | -39.1 | -41.6 | -39.4 | -34.7 | -33.8 | -30.3 | -25.6 | -27.2 | -23.0 | -26.1 |
| Business confidence | -5.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -14.5 | -14.2 | -11.4 | -12.4 | -10.5 | -8.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| |
| | 1998. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.0 | -15.6 | -18.6 | -19.9 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -9.8 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -16.3 | -22.7 |
| Business confidence | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -8.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -10.2 | -11.3 | -12.5 |
| |
| | 1999. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.7 | -22.8 | -28.5 | -29.6 | -28.9 | -35.5 | -32.9 | -30.4 | -27.1 | -25.5 | -29.9 |
| Business confidence | -8.3 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -12.7 | -14.8 | -10.3 | -6.7 | -7.8 | -7.3 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -3.1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.8 | -14.4 | -14.7 | -16.8 | -18.6 | -15.1 | -14.2 | -14.4 | -13.3 | -11.2 | -10.1 | -10.1 |
| |
| | 2000. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.9 | -28.1 | -29.2 | -31.2 | -28.9 | -30.9 | -33.0 | -30.4 | -32.6 | -29.6 | -30.7 | -26.6 |
| Business confidence | -5.6 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| GKI-composite index | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -8.0 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 |
| |
| | 2001. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.2 | -23.2 | -23.4 | -20.9 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -19.9 | -20.9 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -16.6 | -15.1 |
| Business confidence | -1.4 | -1.7 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -7.1 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -7.6 | -7.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -10.5 | -9.3 | -10.9 | -11.7 | -12.4 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2002. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -15.6 | -13,9 | -5,4 | -0,6 | -2,1 | -1,8 | -1,3 | 0,5 | -3,5 | -3,5 | -8,7 | -7,8 |
| Business confidence | -10.1 | -6,9 | -4,3 | -9,3 | -4,7 | -6,2 | -6,2 | -4,4 | -6,9 | -4,9 | -6,4 | -7,1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.5 | -8,7 | -4,6 | -7,0 | -4,1 | -5,2 | -4,9 | -3,1 | -6,0 | -4,5 | -7,0 | -7,3 |
| |
| | 2003. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -12,2 | -21,9 | -22,5 | -19,2 | -21,4 | -23,5 | -25,1 | -32,7 | -32,4 | -32,3 | -31.0 | -31.1 |
| Business confidence | -12,0 | -11,0 | -13,1 | -11,4 | -8,4 | -13,4 | -10,2 | -9,3 | -11,0; | -9,8 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| GKI-composite index | -12,1 | -13,8 | -15,5 | -13,4 | -11,8 | -16,0 | -14,1 | -15,4 | -16,6 | -15,7 | -12.0 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2004. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -34.6 | -34.9 | -35.5 | -33.8 | -29.1 | -26.0 | -26.7 | -27.7 | -25.8 | -26,5 | -26,1 | -24,3 |
| Business confidence | -8.6 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -11,7 | -16,4 | -14,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.4 | -16.4 | -14.6 | -10.9 | -12.7 | -9.9 | -12.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | -15,5 | -18,9 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2005. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -21.7 | -22.5 | -26,0 | -30,9 | -32,7 | -35,2 | -28.9 | -27,8 | -26,1 | -27,8 | -23,4 | -18,7 |
| Business confidence | -12.7 | -16.1 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -14.2 | -15,2 | -8,8 | -9,3 | -8,5 | -8,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.0 | -17.8 | -19,6 | -20,6 | -21,4 | -21,7 | -18.0 | -18,5 | -13,3 | -14,1 | -12,4 | -11,2 |
| |
| | 2006. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -16,3 | -10,3 | -11.8 | -10,5 | -24,4 | -43.3 | -48,2 | -46.9 | -51,1 | -49,0 | -51.8 | -52.9 |
| Business confidence | -8,6 | -9,4 | -5,4 | -3,7 | -2,2 | -4.4 | -5,8 | -8.8 | -4,2 | -7,3 | -6.7 | -9.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -10,6 | -9,6 | -7.1 | -5,5 | -8,0 | -14.5 | -16,8 | -18.7 | -16,4 | -18,1 | -18.4 | -21.0 |
| |
| | 2007. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -53,5 | -53.7 | -51,9 | -52,0 | -51,3 | -48,0 | -47,7 | -47,2 | -49,3 | -51,0 | -53,6 | -47,1 |
| Business confidence | -7,9 | -5.8 | -2,9 | -4,4 | -4,6 | -4,0 | -5,3 | -5,0 | -5,4 | -10,7 | -6,8 | -7,0 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,8 | -18.2 | -15,6 | -16,8 | -16,7 | -15,4 | -16,3 | -16,0 | -16,8 | -21,2 | -19,0 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2008. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -47,8 | -47.6 | -52.4 | -55.4 | -52.3 | -46,1 | -42,9 | -43.5 | -42,5 | -54,0 | -56,7 | -60.8 |
| Business confidence | -9,7 | -6.7 | -7.9 | -10.9 | -7.3 | -10,0 | -8,1 | -8.1 | -9,3 | -14,8 | -25,1 | -28.2 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,6 | -17.3 | -19.5 | -22.5 | -19.0 | -19,4 | -17,1 | -17.3 | -17,9 | -25,0 | -33,3 | -36.7 |
| |
| | 2009. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -66,1 | -68,5 | -70,0 | -72.3 | -68.3 | -64.3 | -63.1 | -59.8 | -56.9 | -50.8 | -51.9 | -50.1 |
| Business confidence | -30,5 | -34,0 | -37,7 | -37.0 | -30.4 | -29.0 | -25.4 | -22.8 | -21.5 | -18.4 | -18.9 | -16.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -39,8 | -43,0 | -46,1 | -46.2 | -40.3 | -38.2 | -35.2 | -32.4 | -30.7 | -26.8 | -27.5 | -25.4 |
| | 2010. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -49,1 | -47,5 | -41,2 | -37,0 | | | | | | | | |
| Business confidence | -14,2 | -13,6 | -10,7 | -10,2 | | | | | | | | |
| GKI-composite index | -23,3 | -22,4 | -18,6 | -17,2 | | | | | | | | |
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