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May 25. 2010. GKI sentiment index
GKI's economic sentiment index reached pre-crisis level
In May GKI's economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects continued its rise that had started a year ago. According to the survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. (www.gki.hu) with the support of the European Union, the consumer confidence index increased most, but business expectations, too, exceeded the level of the last ?calm' month before the crisis (September 2008).
In March expectations in the business sphere improved in industry and construction, whereas they deteriorated in trade and services compared with April. Following a short halt in April, the significant increase of the confidence index in industry that had started a year ago continued. In May, the assessment of the stock of orders-among this that of export orders-improved significantly but expectations concerning perspectives over production remained unchanged m-o-m. Nevertheless, those anticipating growth in production were in a majority among small enterprises, too, although this type of businesses was less optimistic. In construction the confidence index increased in May, too. The assessment of production and that of stock of orders concerning the next three months improved slightly. The confidence index of trade increased significantly in the first four months of 2010, and then in May it dropped slightly. The assessment of sales positions and that of expected orders deteriorated, whereas the average level of stocks was considered smaller than in April. In services, the confidence index basically stagnated between November 2009 and March 2010, and although it jumped significantly in April, it dropped again in May. Both the opinions on the turnover for the next three months and the assessment of the state of the business turned gloomier.
Intentions to employ improved in all sectors except for services where they became much more downbeat. In industry the firms that planned to raise employment were in a slight majority. Fear from unemployment dropped significantly among consumers.
In industry and trade firms still expected an increase of prices, although both its range and its extent decreased. In construction those expecting a price reduction were still in a big majority whereas in services they continued to be in a narrow majority. Households' inflationary expectations were down notably in May.
The prospects of the Hungarian economy continued to improve in the business sphere-except for services-and among households, too. In industry and trade more firms expected improvement than deterioration.
GKI's confidence index of consumers increased markedly in May after the parliamentary elections. Although the assessment of consumers' own financial position improved notably, that of short-term saving capacity improved only slightly and the opinion of consumers concerning the possibilities of buying high value durables was flat at present (but it improved significantly regarding the future).
Explanation to the methodology:
In line with the methodology used by the EU, GKI surveys the expectations of industry, trade, construction and services in the calculation of its business confidence index. (As far as services are concerned, similarly to the practice of the EU, companies of the financial and public sectors have not been included in the surveys yet.) GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data by using appropriate mathematical methods to filter out the discrepancies caused by seasonal effects (e.g. differences in weather conditions between winter and summer, increased demand before Christmas, lower output because of summer vacations).
The consumer confidence index is calculated from responses given to questions concerning the actual and the expected financial position of households, the actual and the expected economic situation of the country, and the purchase of higher value consumer durables.
The business confidence index is calculated from the responses of enterprises in industry, trade, construction and services given to questions concerning the state of business and expectations. The history of the subindex that reflects the expectations of services is shorter than that of other sectors. This kind of surveys started in 1998. Therefore the business confidence index for 1996-1997 had to be recalculated. This was made by using the mathematical correlation among the confidence indices of various sectors in the period after 1998.
The GKI economic confidence index is the weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index.
GKI Sentiment Index and its components, 1996-2009
Source: surveys of GKI Co.
|
| | 1996. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -45.1 | -48.8 | -45.9 | -44.8 | -50.5 | -51.5 | -46.8 | -41.9 | -42.8 | -40.0 | -34.9 | -39.6 |
| Business confidence | -7.8 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -7.0 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -3.8 | -5.0 |
| GKI-composite index | -17.5 | -15.6 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 | -19.4 | -16.1 | -15.2 | -12.7 | -11.9 | -14.0 |
| |
| | 1997. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -40.0 | -41.1 | -39.1 | -41.6 | -39.4 | -34.7 | -33.8 | -30.3 | -25.6 | -27.2 | -23.0 | -26.1 |
| Business confidence | -5.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -14.5 | -14.2 | -11.4 | -12.4 | -10.5 | -8.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| |
| | 1998. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.0 | -15.6 | -18.6 | -19.9 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -9.8 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -16.3 | -22.7 |
| Business confidence | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -8.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -10.2 | -11.3 | -12.5 |
| |
| | 1999. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.7 | -22.8 | -28.5 | -29.6 | -28.9 | -35.5 | -32.9 | -30.4 | -27.1 | -25.5 | -29.9 |
| Business confidence | -8.3 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -12.7 | -14.8 | -10.3 | -6.7 | -7.8 | -7.3 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -3.1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.8 | -14.4 | -14.7 | -16.8 | -18.6 | -15.1 | -14.2 | -14.4 | -13.3 | -11.2 | -10.1 | -10.1 |
| |
| | 2000. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.9 | -28.1 | -29.2 | -31.2 | -28.9 | -30.9 | -33.0 | -30.4 | -32.6 | -29.6 | -30.7 | -26.6 |
| Business confidence | -5.6 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| GKI-composite index | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -8.0 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 |
| |
| | 2001. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.2 | -23.2 | -23.4 | -20.9 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -19.9 | -20.9 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -16.6 | -15.1 |
| Business confidence | -1.4 | -1.7 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -7.1 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -7.6 | -7.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -10.5 | -9.3 | -10.9 | -11.7 | -12.4 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2002. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -15.6 | -13,9 | -5,4 | -0,6 | -2,1 | -1,8 | -1,3 | 0,5 | -3,5 | -3,5 | -8,7 | -7,8 |
| Business confidence | -10.1 | -6,9 | -4,3 | -9,3 | -4,7 | -6,2 | -6,2 | -4,4 | -6,9 | -4,9 | -6,4 | -7,1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.5 | -8,7 | -4,6 | -7,0 | -4,1 | -5,2 | -4,9 | -3,1 | -6,0 | -4,5 | -7,0 | -7,3 |
| |
| | 2003. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -12,2 | -21,9 | -22,5 | -19,2 | -21,4 | -23,5 | -25,1 | -32,7 | -32,4 | -32,3 | -31.0 | -31.1 |
| Business confidence | -12,0 | -11,0 | -13,1 | -11,4 | -8,4 | -13,4 | -10,2 | -9,3 | -11,0; | -9,8 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| GKI-composite index | -12,1 | -13,8 | -15,5 | -13,4 | -11,8 | -16,0 | -14,1 | -15,4 | -16,6 | -15,7 | -12.0 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2004. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -34.6 | -34.9 | -35.5 | -33.8 | -29.1 | -26.0 | -26.7 | -27.7 | -25.8 | -26,5 | -26,1 | -24,3 |
| Business confidence | -8.6 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -11,7 | -16,4 | -14,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.4 | -16.4 | -14.6 | -10.9 | -12.7 | -9.9 | -12.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | -15,5 | -18,9 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2005. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -21.7 | -22.5 | -26,0 | -30,9 | -32,7 | -35,2 | -28.9 | -27,8 | -26,1 | -27,8 | -23,4 | -18,7 |
| Business confidence | -12.7 | -16.1 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -14.2 | -15,2 | -8,8 | -9,3 | -8,5 | -8,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.0 | -17.8 | -19,6 | -20,6 | -21,4 | -21,7 | -18.0 | -18,5 | -13,3 | -14,1 | -12,4 | -11,2 |
| |
| | 2006. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -16,3 | -10,3 | -11.8 | -10,5 | -24,4 | -43.3 | -48,2 | -46.9 | -51,1 | -49,0 | -51.8 | -52.9 |
| Business confidence | -8,6 | -9,4 | -5,4 | -3,7 | -2,2 | -4.4 | -5,8 | -8.8 | -4,2 | -7,3 | -6.7 | -9.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -10,6 | -9,6 | -7.1 | -5,5 | -8,0 | -14.5 | -16,8 | -18.7 | -16,4 | -18,1 | -18.4 | -21.0 |
| |
| | 2007. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -53,5 | -53.7 | -51,9 | -52,0 | -51,3 | -48,0 | -47,7 | -47,2 | -49,3 | -51,0 | -53,6 | -47,1 |
| Business confidence | -7,9 | -5.8 | -2,9 | -4,4 | -4,6 | -4,0 | -5,3 | -5,0 | -5,4 | -10,7 | -6,8 | -7,0 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,8 | -18.2 | -15,6 | -16,8 | -16,7 | -15,4 | -16,3 | -16,0 | -16,8 | -21,2 | -19,0 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2008. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -47,8 | -47.6 | -52.4 | -55.4 | -52.3 | -46,1 | -42,9 | -43.5 | -42,5 | -54,0 | -56,7 | -60.8 |
| Business confidence | -9,7 | -6.7 | -7.9 | -10.9 | -7.3 | -10,0 | -8,1 | -8.1 | -9,3 | -14,8 | -25,1 | -28.2 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,6 | -17.3 | -19.5 | -22.5 | -19.0 | -19,4 | -17,1 | -17.3 | -17,9 | -25,0 | -33,3 | -36.7 |
| |
| | 2009. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -66,1 | -68,5 | -70,0 | -72.3 | -68.3 | -64.3 | -63.1 | -59.8 | -56.9 | -50.8 | -51.9 | -50.1 |
| Business confidence | -30,5 | -34,0 | -37,7 | -37.0 | -30.4 | -29.0 | -25.4 | -22.8 | -21.5 | -18.4 | -18.9 | -16.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -39,8 | -43,0 | -46,1 | -46.2 | -40.3 | -38.2 | -35.2 | -32.4 | -30.7 | -26.8 | -27.5 | -25.4 |
| | 2010. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -49,1 | -47,5 | -41,2 | -37,0 | -28,7 | | | | | | | |
| Business confidence | -14,2 | -13,6 | -10,7 | -10,2 | -8,8 | | | | | | | |
| GKI-composite index | -23,3 | -22,4 | -18,6 | -17,2 | -14,0 | | | | | | | |
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