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June 21. 2010. GKI sentiment index
GKI's economic sentiment index continued to grow
In June GKI's economic sentiment index adjusted for seasonal effects continued its rise that had started a year ago. According to the survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. (www.gki.hu) with the support of the European Union, this is the result of the significant increase in the consumer confidence index since business expectations dropped slightly. (The survey of consumers started before the fall of the exchange rate, whereas that of the business sector was typically after that).
In May expectations in the business sphere deteriorated in all sectors except for services, although they were still higher than in April. In industry, the assessment of production in the last three months improved and that of stock of orders also turned slightly better, but intentions to employ weakened. The biggest change in trade was the increase of the average level of stocks, whereas the assessment of expected orders deteriorated significantly, although that of sales positions improved. In services, the assessment of the state of the business turned better and opinions on the turnover for the next three months remained unchanged.
Intentions to employ became more downbeat in industry and construction, stagnated in trade, whereas they improved notably in services. Fear from unemployment fell significantly among consumers. In industry and trade firms did not expect a price rise, although those anticipating a price reduction dropped slightly. In trade and services somewhat more firms expect an increase of prices than a month ago, whereas in trade the extent of the expected price rise became smaller. Households' inflationary expectations were down. So far the overall prospects of the Hungarian economy improved but in June they deteriorated slightly in all sectors except for trade but they improved among consumers.
GKI's confidence index of consumers increased markedly after the bottom recorded in April 2009. It fell in line with European trends, but in the last couple of months the confidence index stagnated, or even deteriorated in Europe, whereas in Hungary the improvement even accelerated-obviously because of the parliamentary elections-and thus the level of the confidence index has not been so high for more than four years. In June the assessment of consumers' own financial position and that of short-term saving capacity improved significantly. The opinion of consumers concerning the possibilities of buying high value durables at present stagnated but it improved notably regarding the future.
Explanation to the methodology:
In line with the methodology used by the EU, GKI surveys the expectations of industry, trade, construction and services in the calculation of its business confidence index. (As far as services are concerned, similarly to the practice of the EU, companies of the financial and public sectors have not been included in the surveys yet.) GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data by using appropriate mathematical methods to filter out the discrepancies caused by seasonal effects (e.g. differences in weather conditions between winter and summer, increased demand before Christmas, lower output because of summer vacations).
The consumer confidence index is calculated from responses given to questions concerning the actual and the expected financial position of households, the actual and the expected economic situation of the country, and the purchase of higher value consumer durables.
The business confidence index is calculated from the responses of enterprises in industry, trade, construction and services given to questions concerning the state of business and expectations. The history of the subindex that reflects the expectations of services is shorter than that of other sectors. This kind of surveys started in 1998. Therefore the business confidence index for 1996-1997 had to be recalculated. This was made by using the mathematical correlation among the confidence indices of various sectors in the period after 1998.
The GKI economic confidence index is the weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index.
GKI Sentiment Index and its components, 1996-2009
Source: surveys of GKI Co.
|
| | 1996. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -45.1 | -48.8 | -45.9 | -44.8 | -50.5 | -51.5 | -46.8 | -41.9 | -42.8 | -40.0 | -34.9 | -39.6 |
| Business confidence | -7.8 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -7.0 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -3.8 | -5.0 |
| GKI-composite index | -17.5 | -15.6 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 | -19.4 | -16.1 | -15.2 | -12.7 | -11.9 | -14.0 |
| |
| | 1997. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -40.0 | -41.1 | -39.1 | -41.6 | -39.4 | -34.7 | -33.8 | -30.3 | -25.6 | -27.2 | -23.0 | -26.1 |
| Business confidence | -5.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -14.5 | -14.2 | -11.4 | -12.4 | -10.5 | -8.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| |
| | 1998. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.0 | -15.6 | -18.6 | -19.9 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -9.8 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -16.3 | -22.7 |
| Business confidence | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -8.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -10.2 | -11.3 | -12.5 |
| |
| | 1999. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.7 | -22.8 | -28.5 | -29.6 | -28.9 | -35.5 | -32.9 | -30.4 | -27.1 | -25.5 | -29.9 |
| Business confidence | -8.3 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -12.7 | -14.8 | -10.3 | -6.7 | -7.8 | -7.3 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -3.1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.8 | -14.4 | -14.7 | -16.8 | -18.6 | -15.1 | -14.2 | -14.4 | -13.3 | -11.2 | -10.1 | -10.1 |
| |
| | 2000. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.9 | -28.1 | -29.2 | -31.2 | -28.9 | -30.9 | -33.0 | -30.4 | -32.6 | -29.6 | -30.7 | -26.6 |
| Business confidence | -5.6 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| GKI-composite index | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -8.0 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 |
| |
| | 2001. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.2 | -23.2 | -23.4 | -20.9 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -19.9 | -20.9 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -16.6 | -15.1 |
| Business confidence | -1.4 | -1.7 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -7.1 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -7.6 | -7.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -10.5 | -9.3 | -10.9 | -11.7 | -12.4 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2002. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -15.6 | -13,9 | -5,4 | -0,6 | -2,1 | -1,8 | -1,3 | 0,5 | -3,5 | -3,5 | -8,7 | -7,8 |
| Business confidence | -10.1 | -6,9 | -4,3 | -9,3 | -4,7 | -6,2 | -6,2 | -4,4 | -6,9 | -4,9 | -6,4 | -7,1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.5 | -8,7 | -4,6 | -7,0 | -4,1 | -5,2 | -4,9 | -3,1 | -6,0 | -4,5 | -7,0 | -7,3 |
| |
| | 2003. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -12,2 | -21,9 | -22,5 | -19,2 | -21,4 | -23,5 | -25,1 | -32,7 | -32,4 | -32,3 | -31.0 | -31.1 |
| Business confidence | -12,0 | -11,0 | -13,1 | -11,4 | -8,4 | -13,4 | -10,2 | -9,3 | -11,0; | -9,8 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| GKI-composite index | -12,1 | -13,8 | -15,5 | -13,4 | -11,8 | -16,0 | -14,1 | -15,4 | -16,6 | -15,7 | -12.0 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2004. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -34.6 | -34.9 | -35.5 | -33.8 | -29.1 | -26.0 | -26.7 | -27.7 | -25.8 | -26,5 | -26,1 | -24,3 |
| Business confidence | -8.6 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -11,7 | -16,4 | -14,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.4 | -16.4 | -14.6 | -10.9 | -12.7 | -9.9 | -12.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | -15,5 | -18,9 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2005. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -21.7 | -22.5 | -26,0 | -30,9 | -32,7 | -35,2 | -28.9 | -27,8 | -26,1 | -27,8 | -23,4 | -18,7 |
| Business confidence | -12.7 | -16.1 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -14.2 | -15,2 | -8,8 | -9,3 | -8,5 | -8,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.0 | -17.8 | -19,6 | -20,6 | -21,4 | -21,7 | -18.0 | -18,5 | -13,3 | -14,1 | -12,4 | -11,2 |
| |
| | 2006. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -16,3 | -10,3 | -11.8 | -10,5 | -24,4 | -43.3 | -48,2 | -46.9 | -51,1 | -49,0 | -51.8 | -52.9 |
| Business confidence | -8,6 | -9,4 | -5,4 | -3,7 | -2,2 | -4.4 | -5,8 | -8.8 | -4,2 | -7,3 | -6.7 | -9.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -10,6 | -9,6 | -7.1 | -5,5 | -8,0 | -14.5 | -16,8 | -18.7 | -16,4 | -18,1 | -18.4 | -21.0 |
| |
| | 2007. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -53,5 | -53.7 | -51,9 | -52,0 | -51,3 | -48,0 | -47,7 | -47,2 | -49,3 | -51,0 | -53,6 | -47,1 |
| Business confidence | -7,9 | -5.8 | -2,9 | -4,4 | -4,6 | -4,0 | -5,3 | -5,0 | -5,4 | -10,7 | -6,8 | -7,0 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,8 | -18.2 | -15,6 | -16,8 | -16,7 | -15,4 | -16,3 | -16,0 | -16,8 | -21,2 | -19,0 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2008. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -47,8 | -47.6 | -52.4 | -55.4 | -52.3 | -46,1 | -42,9 | -43.5 | -42,5 | -54,0 | -56,7 | -60.8 |
| Business confidence | -9,7 | -6.7 | -7.9 | -10.9 | -7.3 | -10,0 | -8,1 | -8.1 | -9,3 | -14,8 | -25,1 | -28.2 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,6 | -17.3 | -19.5 | -22.5 | -19.0 | -19,4 | -17,1 | -17.3 | -17,9 | -25,0 | -33,3 | -36.7 |
| |
| | 2009. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -66,1 | -68,5 | -70,0 | -72.3 | -68.3 | -64.3 | -63.1 | -59.8 | -56.9 | -50.8 | -51.9 | -50.1 |
| Business confidence | -30,5 | -34,0 | -37,7 | -37.0 | -30.4 | -29.0 | -25.4 | -22.8 | -21.5 | -18.4 | -18.9 | -16.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -39,8 | -43,0 | -46,1 | -46.2 | -40.3 | -38.2 | -35.2 | -32.4 | -30.7 | -26.8 | -27.5 | -25.4 |
| | 2010. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -49,1 | -47,5 | -41,2 | -37,0 | -28,7 | -23,4 | | | | | | |
| Business confidence | -14,2 | -13,6 | -10,7 | -10,2 | -8,8 | -9,2 | | | | | | |
| GKI-composite index | -23,3 | -22,4 | -18,6 | -17,2 | -14,0 | -12,9 | | | | | | |
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