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February 22. 2010. GKI sentiment index
Decreasing pessimism in employment
GKI's economic sentiment index improved further in February but it still did not reach the pre-crisis level. According to the survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. (www.gki.hu) with the support of the European Union, expectations of both businesses and consumers have continued its improvement that started last May.
In the business sphere expectations improved in all sectors except for industry. In February, the confidence index in industry fell after its continuous increase that started some nine months ago, although this drop was significantly lower than the increase in January. The evaluation of the production of the past three months improved. Furthermore, the ratio of those big firms that consider their production to be above the usual level compared with those that regard it low was significantly higher but the anticipation of the next three months deteriorated. The assessment of the stock of orders was worse too, but in a lower level of aggregation that of export orders remained unchanged and among the big firms the number of those with high export orders exceeded those with lower ones. In February the stocks of own production were considered somewhat higher than in January by the respondents.
In construction the confidence index continued to increase for the third consecutive months in February. The assessment of production and stock of orders concerning the past three months improved slightly. The confidence index of trade fluctuated significantly in 2009 but it had a growing trend throughout the year and in the first two months of 2010 the trend continued: after the drop of January the index went up again in February. The assessment of expected orders and sales positions increased significantly whereas that of stocks remained unchanged. Opinion on business prospects for the next three months turned better, too, and optimists were in a majority for the first time for one and a half years. After the drop in the last two months of 2009 and the stagnation in January the confidence index of services increased again m-o-m in February 2010. The opinions on the turnover for the next three months improved most, but the assessment of the state of business turned better as well.
The number of those expecting a decrease of prices picked up somewhat in industry, whereas it remained unchanged in construction but those expecting a price reduction were in a big majority. In services respondents expected stagnating prices, whereas in trade firms that plan a price increase were in a (decreasing) majority. Households' inflationary expectations eased significantly, but the level of this drop equals the increase of January. Intentions to employ were up in all sectors except for construction where it remained unchanged. The ratio of those firms that plan a reduction in employment was only 4 percentage points lower in industry and 5 percentage points lower in trade than the ones that plan an increase. Fear from unemployment, too, dropped among consumers. In February, the prospects of the Hungarian economy improved in all sectors m-o-m except for services.
The confidence index of consumers increased significantly after its low in April 2009, but this came to a halt in December 2009. In February, the assessment of consumers' own financial position improved, whereas that of short-term saving capacity deteriorated.
Explanation to the methodology:
In line with the methodology used by the EU, GKI surveys the expectations of industry, trade, construction and services in the calculation of its business confidence index. (As far as services are concerned, similarly to the practice of the EU, companies of the financial and public sectors have not been included in the surveys yet.) GKI publishes seasonally adjusted data by using appropriate mathematical methods to filter out the discrepancies caused by seasonal effects (e.g. differences in weather conditions between winter and summer, increased demand before Christmas, lower output because of summer vacations).
The consumer confidence index is calculated from responses given to questions concerning the actual and the expected financial position of households, the actual and the expected economic situation of the country, and the purchase of higher value consumer durables.
The business confidence index is calculated from the responses of enterprises in industry, trade, construction and services given to questions concerning the state of business and expectations. The history of the subindex that reflects the expectations of services is shorter than that of other sectors. This kind of surveys started in 1998. Therefore the business confidence index for 1996-1997 had to be recalculated. This was made by using the mathematical correlation among the confidence indices of various sectors in the period after 1998.
The GKI economic confidence index is the weighted average of the consumer confidence index and the business confidence index.
GKI Sentiment Index and its components, 1996-2009
Source: surveys of GKI Co.
|
| | 1996. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -45.1 | -48.8 | -45.9 | -44.8 | -50.5 | -51.5 | -46.8 | -41.9 | -42.8 | -40.0 | -34.9 | -39.6 |
| Business confidence | -7.8 | -3.9 | -6.6 | -7.1 | -6.8 | -9.4 | -9.8 | -7.0 | -5.4 | -3.1 | -3.8 | -5.0 |
| GKI-composite index | -17.5 | -15.6 | -16.8 | -16.9 | -18.2 | -20.4 | -19.4 | -16.1 | -15.2 | -12.7 | -11.9 | -14.0 |
| |
| | 1997. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -40.0 | -41.1 | -39.1 | -41.6 | -39.4 | -34.7 | -33.8 | -30.3 | -25.6 | -27.2 | -23.0 | -26.1 |
| Business confidence | -5.5 | -4.8 | -1.7 | -2.1 | -0.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 5.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -14.5 | -14.2 | -11.4 | -12.4 | -10.5 | -8.0 | -8.1 | -5.9 | -4.2 | -2.7 | -1.4 | -2.5 |
| |
| | 1998. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.0 | -15.6 | -18.6 | -19.9 | -10.4 | -8.2 | -9.8 | -14.1 | -13.9 | -16.3 | -22.7 |
| Business confidence | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.7 | 5.5 | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -8.9 | -9.6 | -8.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.1 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -5.6 | -10.2 | -11.3 | -12.5 |
| |
| | 1999. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -22.0 | -19.7 | -22.8 | -28.5 | -29.6 | -28.9 | -35.5 | -32.9 | -30.4 | -27.1 | -25.5 | -29.9 |
| Business confidence | -8.3 | -12.6 | -11.9 | -12.7 | -14.8 | -10.3 | -6.7 | -7.8 | -7.3 | -5.7 | -4.7 | -3.1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.8 | -14.4 | -14.7 | -16.8 | -18.6 | -15.1 | -14.2 | -14.4 | -13.3 | -11.2 | -10.1 | -10.1 |
| |
| | 2000. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.9 | -28.1 | -29.2 | -31.2 | -28.9 | -30.9 | -33.0 | -30.4 | -32.6 | -29.6 | -30.7 | -26.6 |
| Business confidence | -5.6 | -4.3 | -5.2 | -0.8 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 1.1 | -0.1 | -2.1 | -0.9 | 0.6 | -1.5 |
| GKI-composite index | -10.9 | -10.5 | -11.4 | -8.7 | -7.4 | -8.7 | -7.7 | -8.0 | -10.1 | -8.3 | -7.5 | -8.0 |
| |
| | 2001. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -25.2 | -23.2 | -23.4 | -20.9 | -21.2 | -22.0 | -19.9 | -20.9 | -20.7 | -19.3 | -16.6 | -15.1 |
| Business confidence | -1.4 | -1.7 | 1.8 | -0.4 | -2.8 | -3.1 | -7.1 | -5.3 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -11.0 | -10.9 |
| GKI-composite index | -7.6 | -7.3 | -4.8 | -5.7 | -7.6 | -8.0 | -10.5 | -9.3 | -10.9 | -11.7 | -12.4 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2002. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -15.6 | -13,9 | -5,4 | -0,6 | -2,1 | -1,8 | -1,3 | 0,5 | -3,5 | -3,5 | -8,7 | -7,8 |
| Business confidence | -10.1 | -6,9 | -4,3 | -9,3 | -4,7 | -6,2 | -6,2 | -4,4 | -6,9 | -4,9 | -6,4 | -7,1 |
| GKI-composite index | -11.5 | -8,7 | -4,6 | -7,0 | -4,1 | -5,2 | -4,9 | -3,1 | -6,0 | -4,5 | -7,0 | -7,3 |
| |
| | 2003. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -12,2 | -21,9 | -22,5 | -19,2 | -21,4 | -23,5 | -25,1 | -32,7 | -32,4 | -32,3 | -31.0 | -31.1 |
| Business confidence | -12,0 | -11,0 | -13,1 | -11,4 | -8,4 | -13,4 | -10,2 | -9,3 | -11,0; | -9,8 | -5.3 | -5.3 |
| GKI-composite index | -12,1 | -13,8 | -15,5 | -13,4 | -11,8 | -16,0 | -14,1 | -15,4 | -16,6 | -15,7 | -12.0 | -12.0 |
| |
| | 2004. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -34.6 | -34.9 | -35.5 | -33.8 | -29.1 | -26.0 | -26.7 | -27.7 | -25.8 | -26,5 | -26,1 | -24,3 |
| Business confidence | -8.6 | -9.9 | -7.3 | -2.9 | -7.0 | -4.3 | -7.8 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -11,7 | -16,4 | -14,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.4 | -16.4 | -14.6 | -10.9 | -12.7 | -9.9 | -12.7 | -11.7 | -11.9 | -15,5 | -18,9 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2005. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -21.7 | -22.5 | -26,0 | -30,9 | -32,7 | -35,2 | -28.9 | -27,8 | -26,1 | -27,8 | -23,4 | -18,7 |
| Business confidence | -12.7 | -16.1 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -17,4 | -17,0 | -14.2 | -15,2 | -8,8 | -9,3 | -8,5 | -8,5 |
| GKI-composite index | -15.0 | -17.8 | -19,6 | -20,6 | -21,4 | -21,7 | -18.0 | -18,5 | -13,3 | -14,1 | -12,4 | -11,2 |
| |
| | 2006. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -16,3 | -10,3 | -11.8 | -10,5 | -24,4 | -43.3 | -48,2 | -46.9 | -51,1 | -49,0 | -51.8 | -52.9 |
| Business confidence | -8,6 | -9,4 | -5,4 | -3,7 | -2,2 | -4.4 | -5,8 | -8.8 | -4,2 | -7,3 | -6.7 | -9.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -10,6 | -9,6 | -7.1 | -5,5 | -8,0 | -14.5 | -16,8 | -18.7 | -16,4 | -18,1 | -18.4 | -21.0 |
| |
| | 2007. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -53,5 | -53.7 | -51,9 | -52,0 | -51,3 | -48,0 | -47,7 | -47,2 | -49,3 | -51,0 | -53,6 | -47,1 |
| Business confidence | -7,9 | -5.8 | -2,9 | -4,4 | -4,6 | -4,0 | -5,3 | -5,0 | -5,4 | -10,7 | -6,8 | -7,0 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,8 | -18.2 | -15,6 | -16,8 | -16,7 | -15,4 | -16,3 | -16,0 | -16,8 | -21,2 | -19,0 | -17,0 |
| |
| | 2008. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -47,8 | -47.6 | -52.4 | -55.4 | -52.3 | -46,1 | -42,9 | -43.5 | -42,5 | -54,0 | -56,7 | -60.8 |
| Business confidence | -9,7 | -6.7 | -7.9 | -10.9 | -7.3 | -10,0 | -8,1 | -8.1 | -9,3 | -14,8 | -25,1 | -28.2 |
| GKI-composite index | -19,6 | -17.3 | -19.5 | -22.5 | -19.0 | -19,4 | -17,1 | -17.3 | -17,9 | -25,0 | -33,3 | -36.7 |
| |
| | 2009. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -66,1 | -68,5 | -70,0 | -72.3 | -68.3 | -64.3 | -63.1 | -59.8 | -56.9 | -50.8 | -51.9 | -50.1 |
| Business confidence | -30,5 | -34,0 | -37,7 | -37.0 | -30.4 | -29.0 | -25.4 | -22.8 | -21.5 | -18.4 | -18.9 | -16.7 |
| GKI-composite index | -39,8 | -43,0 | -46,1 | -46.2 | -40.3 | -38.2 | -35.2 | -32.4 | -30.7 | -26.8 | -27.5 | -25.4 |
| | 2010. |
|---|
| | I. | II. | III. | IV. | V. | VI. | VII. | VIII. | IX. | X. | XI. | XII. |
| Consumer confidence | -49,1 | -47,5 | | | | | | | | | | |
| Business confidence | -14,2 | -13,6 | | | | | | | | | | |
| GKI-composite index | -23,3 | -22,4 | | | | | | | | | | |
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