In August the GKI sentiment index returned to its lowest point this year

GKI_konj_1608After its significant rise in July, the GKI economic sentiment index decreased significantly, thereby returning to its lowest point this year. Expectations in each of the four business sectors examined deteriorated more or less. Following its significant rise in July, the GKI consumer confidence index fell somewhat in August (by 2.5 points), close to its June level.

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Real estate boom slows but goes on

excavatorsIn July 2016, the Budapest and the Hungarian real estate market indices of GKI-MGYOSZ – compared to the previous quarter – increased by 1 and 2 points respectively. Both indices were 6 points higher than one year earlier. The index figures represent a 42-quarter peak for Budapest, and a 48-quarter peak for Hungary. That is, such high values have not been seen for ten or twelve years, respectively.

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You can download the index values from here.

Silent deterioration of equlibria started

imagebase26_03_kicsiDue to the decrease of EU transfers and hence public investments, the deceleration of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 could have been foreseen. Nevertheless, in the light of the investment restraining effects of the Hungarian model that had been at work for six years the slowdown proved to be unexpectedly spectacular. In addition, in some segments of industry sales problems appeared in the first quarter.

You can download the forecast from here.

More information.

GKI economic sentiment index rose markedly in July

imagebase22_50_kicsiExpectations of industrial and especially service companies improved considerably in July in the business sector, whereas those of commercial and construction companies deteriorated slightly. The industrial confidence index has not been so high for a year and a half. The assessments of both production and the stock of orders (including exports) have improved. Industrial companies considered their capacity utilization more favourable than a quarter before; however, their competitive position was assessed as decaying.

You can download the report from here.

Forecast for 2016

nyilDue to the decrease of EU transfers and hence public investments, the deceleration of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 could have been foreseen. Nevertheless, in the light of the investment restraining effects of the Hungarian model that had been at work for six years the slowdown proved to be unexpectedly spectacular. In addition, in some segments of industry sales problems appeared in the first quarter.

You can download the forecast from here.

More information.