The growth rate of the Hungarian economy was noticeably lower in the second quarter of 2017 than in the first one, and it was one of the lowest in the CEE region. However, it still exceeded the EU average. The spectacular expansion of investments continued, and on this basis, GKI raised its GDP forecast for 2017 to 3.8 per cent. The trends are favourable in the short term; however, long-term solutions are still missing.
GKI’s economic sentiment index reached its historic peak in July. It decreased slightly in August, within the statistical margin of error. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI with the support of the EU, the business confidence index fell slightly in August over the previous month. However, consumer expectations increased a bit.
In July, the GKI real estate indices for Budapest and Hungary stood at 1 and 0 points respectively. Both figures dropped slightly by 1 point, compared to the previous survey. Both indices went up 2 points, compared to the survey made one year earlier. The property market outlook improved only in the office space market, from the previous quarter. On the other hand, no significant change occurred in the other three segments. Generally, the property market outlook is slightly over its peak but it is still on the sunny side.
In Hungary, the faster than expected GDP growth in the first quarter of 2017 was followed by a slight slowdown in April and a pick-up in May. GDP growth is expected to accelerate to around 3.5 per cent in 2017 from 2 per cent in 2016, primarily as a result of investments rising this year, whereas they declined last year. Although external and internal equilibria will deteriorate slightly in 2017, and inflation will accelerate, these trends are acceptable in the short term.
GKI’s economic sentiment index and the business confidence index have never been as high as now so far during its more than twenty years of history. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI with the support of the EU consumer expectations deteriorated slightly compared to June, although they still reflect strong optimism.