Uncertainty is increasing

The Hungarian economy expanded by 4.9 per cent in 2019. It was the second fastest growth rate in the EU after Malta, almost 3.5 percentage points higher than the EU average of 1.5 per cent. If the growth rate will be 3.5 per cent in 2020 as forecast by the Ministry of Finance after taking into account the expected slowdown, the Hungarian growth requirement set by the government of at least 2 extra percentage points compared to 1.4 per cent in the EU can be achieved. At the same time, macroeconomic equilibria are worsening, inflation is accelerating, and the forint is falling spectacularly. The true extent of the short- and long-term effects of the coronavirus cannot be assessed yet.

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The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.