Following the Fed’s raise in interest rates and the normalisation of American monetary policy, the European Central Bank has also embarked on a path of contractionary policy (a strategy that the National Bank of Hungary is yet to pursue). The change in international financial conditions, the possibility of a global trade war, the shock experienced by the Turkish financial system, as well as the uncertainty in the Italian political scene have all led to an outflow of capital from developing countries, including Hungary. After a few years of constant but modest decline in value, the forint depreciated significantly: from April to early July, the EUR/HUF exchange rate decreased by 6 percent, and the USD/HUF exchange rate fell by 10 percent, followed by a slight appreciation of the currency.
Senior researcher of GKI Miklós Losoncz won a Forecast Accuracy Award of London based institute Consensus Economics with his forecasts made on the Slovak economy for the year 2017.
The Forecast Accuracy Award program recognises the achievements of a select group of expert country economic forecasters who have most accurately predicted the final outturns of GDP growth and consumer price inflation in their targeted economies.
The results can be accessed using this link.