Hungary’s financial assessment, which has become more favourable in recent months, may plunge if Hungary’s intentions to negotiate will not be followed by meeting the prerequisites specified by the IMF and the EU.
According to the forecast of GKI the successful accomplishment of negotiations with the IMF and the EU will be enough only for mitigating the contraction of GDP. The recovery of confidence of portfolio and particularly foreign direct investors may bring results only in 2013 the earliest.
In its forecast released in September GKI has already indicated that external demand would slow down and domestic economic policy exerted a strongly adverse effect on domestic demand and financial trends. The Hungarian economy reached a dead end. Genuine turn is needed in economic policy.
The deteriorating growth prospects of the Hungarian economy are in part a consequence of the worsening global economic environment and the uncertainties concerning the solvency of some countries. However, domestic economic policy played a decisive role.