In January of 2019, the GKI real estate indices for Budapest and Hungary stood at 9 and 11 points respectively. Budapest index decreased by almost 2, the national index rose by 3 points compared to the previous (October 2018) survey. Both indices went up 11 points compared to the survey made one year earlier. The national index reached its historical peak, the capital index is not much less than its historical peak. General optimism lasts longer. There are ‘no clouds on the sky’ of the Hungarian real estate market.
GKI estimates that Hungary’s GDP expanded by 4.6 per cent in 2018 and this rate was remarkably high in the EU. The growth cycle is likely to have reached its peak, and the growth rate is expected to be around 3.4 per cent in 2019. Expansion continues to be driven primarily by domestic demand. However, owing to the high statistical base, the boosting effects of EU transfers will be significantly weaker in 2019.
After three months of growth, the GKI economic sentiment index dropped to its October level in January 2019. Business and consumer expectations slightly deteriorated as well, and especially the latter are less favourable than a year earlier. At the same time, both of them continue to reflect strong optimism.
Following its slowdown at the end of summer, in December GKI’s economic sentiment index has been growing for the third consecutive month. Both business and consumer expectations have improved slightly, reflecting strong optimism.
The Hungarian economy grew faster than expected, by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter of 2018, and such quarterly rate has been unprecedented for thirteen years. The Hungarian GDP growth rate according to the EU methodology was more than double the EU average in the first three quar-ters of 2018, one of the fastest in the CEE region. This is certainly the zenith; the growth rate will slow down.