GKI’s economic sentiment index hardly changed in September

Business and consumer expectations in Hungary deteriorated for the fourth month in a row in August. In the case of consumer expectations, this continued in September, whereas the business confidence index slightly increased, although it was noticeably be-low its July level. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. with the support of the EU, consumers were more pessimistic now than they were in the spring of 2020, during the panic caused by the Covid pandemic. The business confi-dence index has been in the negative range for the second month, that is, there were more pessimistic companies than optimistic ones.

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You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

GKI’s economic sentiment index fell sharply in August

August marks the fourth month of steady deterioration in business and consumer expec-tations. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI Economics Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations fell by around 13 points since April this year, while consumer expectations dropped by nearly 30 points, and the latter also fell most sharply in August. The business confidence index was last at a similar low in spring 2021 and the consumer one in spring 2020, during the panic caused by the Covid pandem-ic restrictions. (For the first time in August, consumers’ opinions may have reflected the impact of the announcement of overhead increases.)

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

GKI’s economic sentiment inxex declined further in July, though at a slower rate

GKI’s economic sentiment index fell in July to its more than one-year low, the lowest since March last year. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI Economics Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations fell by around 8 points since April this year, while consumer expectations dropped by more than 20 points, and pessimism among companies and households increased by a similar amount in July. (The household survey was carried out before the announcement of the ‘overhead increase’.) Overall, companies’ efforts to raise prices remained unchanged, while the assessment of the Hungarian economy continued to deteriorate.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Forecast for 2022

GKI has revised its growth forecast. For 2022, it raised its GDP forecast to 3.5-4 per cent from 2.5-3 per cent previously, and lowered its GDP forecast for 2023 to between 2.5-3 per cent from 3.5-4 per cent. The change is a consequence of faster-than-expected growth in the first quarter and stronger-than-expected austerity and inflation, a deteriorating global political situation, and strained relations with the EU.

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

In June, business expectations deteriorated less, while consumer expectations significantly

After May, GKI’s economic sentiment index fell by 5 points in June as well to its 15-month low. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI Economics Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations fell again by 3 points in June, while con-sumer expectations dropped again by around 10 points compared to the previous month. The last time households were more pessimistic than now was the outbreak of the Covid pandemic.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.