GKI’s economic sentiment index has been falling for more than half a year

The business confidence index fell slightly further in November after a big drop in October. Con-sumer sentiment, on the other hand, improved slightly, although it remained gloomier than its terrible pessimism of September. According to a survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations were similarly negative during the Covid period of early 2021. Consumers were still more pessimistic than they were in the Covid panic of spring 2020. The good news, however, is that the business sector’s willingness to employ slightly strengthened, its intentions to raise prices weakened, while consumers’ fear of unemployment and inflationary expectations also changed in a favourable direction.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Forecast for 2022-23: Recession, accelerating inflation, worsening external balance

GKI’s current forecast was made in a context of even greater uncertainty than usual, and understanding trends was complicated by the sharp change in economic developments in the middle of the year. GKI raised its growth forecast for 2022 from 3.7 per cent to 4.5 per cent, while for 2023 it no longer forecasts a growth of 2.7 per cent, but a decline of around 3.5 per cent.

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

GKI’s business confidence index fell in October, and the lack of demand was already a bigger problem than the labour shortage in many places

GKI’s economic sentiment index has been falling for six months in October. While in previous months this was mainly due to a fall in the consumer confidence index, in October it was mainly due to a sharp drop in business expectations across all sectors. According to a survey conducted by GKI Economic Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations were similarly negative during the Covid period of early 2021.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

GKI’s economic sentiment index fell sharply in August

August marks the fourth month of steady deterioration in business and consumer expec-tations. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI Economics Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations fell by around 13 points since April this year, while consumer expectations dropped by nearly 30 points, and the latter also fell most sharply in August. The business confidence index was last at a similar low in spring 2021 and the consumer one in spring 2020, during the panic caused by the Covid pandem-ic restrictions. (For the first time in August, consumers’ opinions may have reflected the impact of the announcement of overhead increases.)

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

GKI’s economic sentiment inxex declined further in July, though at a slower rate

GKI’s economic sentiment index fell in July to its more than one-year low, the lowest since March last year. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI Economics Research Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations fell by around 8 points since April this year, while consumer expectations dropped by more than 20 points, and pessimism among companies and households increased by a similar amount in July. (The household survey was carried out before the announcement of the ‘overhead increase’.) Overall, companies’ efforts to raise prices remained unchanged, while the assessment of the Hungarian economy continued to deteriorate.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.