Only the outlook for consumers and business services improved in July

After a shock-like fall in the outlook for domestic economic agents in April, there was a significant positive correction in May and June. GKI’s economic sentiment index rose only slightly in July, by 2 points, as a combined result of improving expectations of consumers and business services, and stagnant expectations of other sectors. The consumer confi-dence index rose by 6 points this month and the business one by just 1 point compared to June.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Forecast for 2020

GKI currently expects the Hungarian economy to decline by 5-7 per cent in 2020 (assuming no second wave of the pandemic this year). In March, shortly after the announcement of the coronavirus emergency, GKI forecast two scenarios: one with a 3 per cent and another with a 7 per cent decline in GDP this year. Interestingly, in recent months the Hungarian government and the IMF published forecasts close to GKI’s less pessimistic figure, whereas the EU and the OECD published forecasts with the more pessimistic variant.

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

Although pessimism declined further in June, it remained very strong

Although the GKI economic sentiment index rose by a larger extent in June than in May, it elimi-nated only a smaller half (44 percent) of its April fall. According to the empirical survey con-ducted by GKI (www.gki.hu) with the support of the EU, the consumer confidence index rose to a greater extent in May and the business confidence one in June. This is mainly due to the fact that industrial expectations started to improve in June after their continuing deterioration in May.

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

After the panic in April, pessimism eased in May, except the industry

In May, presumably as a result of the lockdown easing measures announced by the govern-ment, almost all sectoral and consumer confidence indices increased and eliminated one-third of their dramatic fall in April. However, pessimism in industry intensified further. GKI’s eco-nomic sentiment index rose by 5 points to -28 points after falling by 29 points in April, still re-flecting pervasive pessimism. The consumer confidence index increased by more than 10 points and the business one by only 3 points. It is true, however, that the fall in April was also more pronounced in the business sector (37 and 25 points, respectively).

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

After a general feeling of catastrophe in April, consumer pessimism eased in May

GKI’s consumer confidence index grew again in May and eliminated almost a third of its April fall. The 38-point drop in April was followed by an improvement of more than 11 points in May. The index rose, presumably as a result of the lockdown easing measures announced by the government, to an otherwise extremely pessimistic -38.5 point after its -50 points in April.

You can download the report from here.