GKI’s economic sentiment index continued to rise in August

After its big jump in April, GKI’s economic sentiment index was slowly rising in the sum-mer months. According to a survey conducted by GKI with the support of the EU, busi-ness expectations also improved slightly in August, while consumer expectations contin-ued to worsen somewhat in August.

 

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Improving business and deteriorating consumer expectations in July

After half a year of steady growth, the GKI economic sentiment index reached its year-end 2019 level in July. However, after an unprecedented rise in April, there has been little improvement in recent months. According to a survey conducted by GKI Economic Re-search Co. with the support of the EU, business expectations rebounded after a slow-down in June, while consumer expectations worsened slightly, although they remained above their May level.

 

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Expected effects of the credit moratorium’s expiration on Hungarian households

GKI Economic Research Co. identified the effects of the credit moratorium’s expiration on Hungarian households, based on a representative survey conducted with thousand respondents.  The credit repayment moratorium was introduced in order to mitigate the effects of the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, and it was extended until June 30, 2021. The moratorium covered 57 per cent of the amount of household loans the end 2020.

You can download the full article from here.

The forecast of GKI Economic Research Co. for 2021 – Summary of the June update of the March 2021 forecast for the press, 30 June 2021

GKI raised its growth forecast for this year very significantly to 7 per cent from 4.3 per cent in March. This is based on a faster-than-expected recovery from the crisis, faster growth compared to the previous quarter, which is already in its third quarter, the end of the third wave of the pandemic and favourable economic expectations. In March, GKI underestimated the export surplus in particular. This year, household consumption is expected to rise by 3-4 per cent and investments by 6 per cent. However, the internal and external equilibria are likely to be worse than assumed in March.

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

Business expectations no longer improved in June

After an unprecedented rise in April, the GKI economic sentiment index continued to as-cend in May and June, but most recently only within the statistical margin of error. This brings the index back to its level at the beginning of last year preceding the pandemic. According to a survey conducted by GKI with the support of the EU, although business expectations regained earlier optimism faster already in May, they became slightly more pessimistic this June. However, the consumer confidence index continued to rise marked-ly in June, almost reaching its pre-crisis level.

 

You can download the report from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.