Business expectations have been deteriorating for seven months

In July, the GKI economic sentiment index fell to a low level not seen for two and a half years as both the business and consumer confidence indices declined. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI (www.gki.hu) with the support of the EU, the busi-ness confidence index has been steadily falling for seven months and it is currently at its level recorded at the beginning of 2017. Although the consumer confidence index is slightly more favourable than in recent months; its deterioration is most striking if we compare it to the period around the parliamentary elections in the spring of 2018. How-ever, the Hungarian economy is still characterized by optimism.

You can download the report from here.

You can download the survey data in Excel 2007 format from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Business expectations fell sharply in June

After reaching its two-year low in April and an improvement in May, the GKI economic sentiment index fell to its level of early summer 2017. The deterioration in business expectations continued throughout the year, similarly to the improvement in consum-er ones. The last time when business expectations were so low had been two and a quarter years ago, whereas the last time when consumer ones were so high had been one year ago.

 

You can download the report from here.

You can download the survey data in Excel 2007 format from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Forecast for 2019

Contrary to expectations, the Hungarian economy did not start to slow down in the first quarter of 2019, and it even accelerated to record speed. Based on this, GKI raised its forecast issued in March: GDP growth from 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent, investments from 7 per cent to 13 per cent, and consumption from 4 per cent to 4.3 per cent. As a result of the overheating of the economy, GKI expects that inflation will be much faster than previously thought (3.7 per cent instead of 3.2 per cent), and the surplus in the current and capital account will be significantly lower (only 1.4 per cent of GDP instead of 3.2 per cent).

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

Hungarian GDP growth peaked in the first quarter

In the first quarter of 2019 the Hungarian economy grew by 5.3 per cent, at a record speed. This rate is by far the fastest in the EU, together with Malta and Romania, the others not even reach 4 per cent. The EU average was 1.5 per cent and the euro area 1.2 per cent, the same as in the previous quarter. As a result of favourable Hungarian data, GKI, like other forecasters, raised its GDP forecast for 2019, from 3.5 per cent to 4 per cent. It is generally believed that a slowdown can be expected during the rest of the year. Projections typically envisage an average GDP growth rate of above 4 per cent in 2019.

You can download the forecast from here.

The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

More information.

Business expectations improved, consumer ones worsened in May

After its two-year low in April, the GKI economic sentiment index rose slightly in May. Alt-hough expectations reflect strong optimism, they are now the lowest in the past two years (excluding April). Both the improvement in business expectations and the deterioration of consumer ones in May are modest; however, they exceed the statistical margin of error.

 

You can download the report from here.

You can download the survey data in Excel 2007 format from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.