The forecast of GKI for 2013

The Hungarian economy will stagnate in 2013, and GDP in 2013 will be at its 2010 level. Even to achieve this, the economy depletes its reserves: people’s private pension assets are lost, foreign exchange reserves are decreasing, and capital and skilled labour are leaving Hungary.

In 2012 GDP declined by 1.7 per cent in Hungary, which was even higher than the 1.5 per cent drop forecasted by GKI a year before. At that time it was considered a particularly pessimistic forecast by government officials. Consumption and investments also continued to decline. GDP adjusted for terms of trade (1.2 per cent) dropped by almost 3 per cent in 2012. Although the Hungarian economy avoided financial crises between 2010 and 2012, it sank into stagnation, from which it cannot get out with the help of its current economic policy. Hungary is threatened by long-term lagging behind the region and lack of perspectives. The Hungarian economy will stagnate in 2013, and GDP in 2013 will be at its 2010 level. Even to achieve this, the economy depletes its reserves: people’s private pension assets are lost, foreign exchange reserves are decreasing, and capital and skilled labour are leaving Hungary.

You can download the forecast from here.