The real estate market boom is expected to remain unbroken

In October, the GKI real estate indices for Budapest and Hungary stood at 11 and 7 points respectively. Budapest index rose by 5, the national index rose by 4 points compared to the previous survey. The capital index went up 11 points, the other one rose by 7 points, compared to the survey made one year earlier.


You can download the forecast from here.


A very fast growth can be expected in 2018 , it will slow down noticeably next year

While most forecasters project a GDP growth rate of 4-4.5 per cent for 2018, they—with the exception of the government—expect only 3-3.5 per cent for next year. (GKI projects at least 4.2 per cent this year, and only about 3.2 per cent next year.) The rate of increase in investments financed by EU transfers and in household consumption, boosted by the elections as well, is expected to slow down. In addition, the trends in European business activity are also uncertain. For the time being, fiscal and monetary policy is loose. Relations between Hungary and the EU are tense.

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The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.

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After a two-month decline, the GKI economic sentiment index rose in October

After a two-month decline following its historic peak in July, the GKI economic sentiment index rose slightly in October. According to the empirical survey conducted by GKI with the support of the EU, this was due to an improvement in business expectations as the consumer confidence index decreased somewhat.


You can download the report from here.

You can download the survey data in Excel 2007 format from here.

You can reach the archive of survey summaries here.

Miklós Losoncz wins accuracy award

Senior researcher of GKI Miklós Losoncz won a Forecast Accuracy Award of London based institute Consensus Economics with his forecasts made on the Slovak economy for the year 2017.
The Forecast Accuracy Award program recognises the achievements of a select group of expert country economic forecasters who have most accurately predicted the final outturns of GDP growth and consumer price inflation in their targeted economies.

The results can be accessed using this link.

Forecast for 2016

nyilDue to the decrease of EU transfers and hence public investments, the deceleration of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2016 could have been foreseen. Nevertheless, in the light of the investment restraining effects of the Hungarian model that had been at work for six years the slowdown proved to be unexpectedly spectacular. In addition, in some segments of industry sales problems appeared in the first quarter.

You can download the forecast from here.

More information.