In recent months, both the growth of Hungarian GDP and the rise in price levels have been faster than previously thought. The strained relationship with the EU is now causing economic losses due to delayed access to reconstruction funds and other EU resources. The confrontational EU policy of the government, its loose fiscal and income policy and the tightening of the central bank, which is mainly verbally strong, but actually manifests itself in the interest rate hikes, all point to a policy that is not sufficiently consistent, subordinated to short-term electoral goals and pushing balance of payments considerations into the background This is unlikely to change before the elections. However, the possible more serious consequences of the fourth wave of the pandemic, which has already begun, could entail a slowdown in the rate of growth and price increases now assumed.
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The archive of earlier forecasts is available here.