After a recession of about 1.5 per cent in 2012, no growth can be expected in Hungary in 2013 either. Inflation will slow down significantly. The main purpose of the government, that is, avoiding the excessive deficit procedure, is getting more and more at odds with the launch of an economic policy favouring the forthcoming elections.
The 2012 forecast of GKI proved to be almost completely accurate: GDP fell by 1.7 per cent in Hungary. Only stagnation can be expected this year, and the lagging behind of the Hungarian economy in the region continues. Inflation will slow down significantly.
The Hungarian economy will stagnate in 2013, and GDP in 2013 will be at its 2010 level. Even to achieve this, the economy depletes its reserves: people’s private pension assets are lost, foreign exchange reserves are decreasing, and capital and skilled labour are leaving Hungary.
GKI Economic Research Co. compared its key annual macroeconomic forecasts published between 1995 and 2011 with the actual data. Differences between the predictions and the actual data are not only the results of forecast errors. The quality of the forecasts and their reliability may be affected by several other factors as well. They include, for example, external economic effects, government intervention in the economy and the continuous adjustment of statistical data.
The study prepared for the Hungarian Investment and Trade Agency gives an analysis of the Hungarian food sector regarding especially potential investors. A relative stability and shock resistance of the supply of food on the one hand and Hungary’s good agricultural conditions on the other can establish the profitability of investments on the long run.