Ask Tippeljen Rendeljen

Forecast 2011-2012

  2011 2012
GDP 1.5% -1.5%
 
Industry 5% 5%
 
Investment -5% -4%
 
Gross earnings 4.5% 3-(3.5)%
 
Inflation 3.9% 5%
 

You can download the forecast from here.

Dec 29. 2011.

Focus

The change started

27. Jan, 2012 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

According to the forecast of GKI the successful accomplishment of negotiations with the IMF and the EU will be enough only for mitigating the contraction of GDP. The recovery of confidence of portfolio and particularly foreign direct investors may bring results only in 2013 the earliest.

The fall of GKI-Erste economic sentiment continued this year as well

22. Jan, 2012 in Business cycle, Business expectations, Consumer expectations, Consumer Price Index, Prosperity, Publications, Free publications

Consumer expectations have been declining for more than 15 months, whereas business expectations stagnated in the last quarter of 2011 following sharp deterioration lasting for eight months, but they fell somewhat in January again.

Way out of the dead end

18. Jan, 2012 in Economic growth, Economic policy, Economy, Free publications

Hungary is facing a financial and solvency crisis for the third time in the past six years. The exchange rate of the forint is weakening, interest rates are rising, and government securities can hardly be sold or can be done so at horribly high yields. The causes of the three cases are different.

 

Genuine change is needed in economic policy

29. Dec, 2011 in Earnings, Economic growth, Exports, Investment , Publications, Free publications

In its forecast released in September GKI has already indicated that external demand would slow down and domestic economic policy exerted a strongly adverse effect on domestic demand and financial trends. The Hungarian economy reached a dead end. Genuine turn is needed in economic policy.

 

MANAGEMENT | HISTORY | CONTACT
(C) 2010 GKI Economic Research Co. All rights reserved